"Climate Predictions: Worst-Case May Be Most Accurate, Study Finds"

"Climate Predictions: Worst-Case May Be Most Accurate, Study Finds"

Photograph by Robin Moore, National Geographic

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Written By:

Juli Berwald

for National Geographic News

Published November 8, 2012

The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy has caused climate change to invade a lot of people's minds. Sources claim that warmer ocean temperatures intensified the hurricane as it plowed up the Gulf Stream, and rising seas might have exacerbated the flooding. A recent climate study (in the journal Science) says that warming is here to stay and that future warming will be a relatively strong prediction.

John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth, atmospheric scientsts, studied global humidity patterns to answer an elusive question, "When atmospheric carbon dioxide levels double—as is expected by late this century—how much warmer will it become?". Estimates of the temperature increase hover around 5 degrees F by the year 2100. However, predictions vary more than twofold from 3 to 8 degrees F. This difference is important because higher temperatures mean larger problems with sea level rise and extreme weather, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation, and ultimately on the ground.

News of climate change is not new, but remains a burden for fresh generations to ponder about. I find enjoyment in diving further into "doomsday" stories, not in a sadistic manner, but to help expand my own outlook on life. The future is imminent but the outcome can still be altered, whether by actions we commit now or do not commit.

- Andrew